Avdotia
South Florida has more than 37,000 apartment units under construction right now, and Avdotia Services is tracking how a supply wave built for 2025’s demand is landing in a 2026 market that has already started absorbing it.
The pipeline, plainly
According to Yardi Matrix data reported by ManageCasa, roughly 37,237 units were under construction in South Florida multifamily buildings of 50 units or more as of April 2026. Florida’s overall rental vacancy rate sits near 10 percent statewide, ranging from roughly 7 percent in tight Miami submarkets up to 12.2 percent in Jacksonville — a wide enough spread that “Florida vacancy” as a single number obscures more than it explains.
Why this wave is a 2025 story finishing in 2026
The defining feature of Florida’s multifamily market through 2025 and early 2026 has been new supply, with large volumes of units delivered across major metros outpacing near-term demand in several submarkets. Projects breaking ground two and three years ago are completing now, on a timeline set well before current leasing conditions were known — which is exactly why a supply figure like this reads as oversupply in the near term even as the state’s population growth remains structurally strong.
The forward signal underneath the oversupply
Construction starts have declined significantly as developers respond to the current absorption environment, and once this wave of deliveries diminishes, absorption projections for 2026 and 2027 suggest South Florida’s multifamily pipeline may actually struggle to keep up with demand. A market can be oversupplied today and undersupplied again within 18 to 24 months once the pipeline that caused today’s softness stops refilling itself — that lag is the mechanism, not a contradiction.
Why submarket-level vacancy is the number that actually matters
A statewide 10 percent vacancy rate tells an investor almost nothing about whether a specific Miami or Jacksonville asset is leasing well. The gap between a 7 percent Miami submarket and a 12.2 percent Jacksonville reading is the difference between a landlord holding pricing power and one discounting to fill units — both are true in Florida at the same time in 2026.
How Avdotia Services reads this
Avdotia Services LLC, at avdotia.work, reads multifamily supply data at the submarket level for exactly this reason — a statewide oversupply headline can mask a specific asset or location that is already tightening, and a statewide undersupply forecast can mask a specific submarket still absorbing last cycle’s deliveries. Timing a multifamily acquisition or disposition off the state-level number alone is how both buyers and sellers misprice a deal in a market this uneven.
The takeaway
South Florida’s roughly 37,000 units under construction reflect decisions made years ago landing in today’s market, not a forecast of where demand is headed. The pipeline behind this wave is already shrinking, and the submarkets absorbing it fastest today are the ones best positioned when it does.